Education only. This is a free educational reference about gambling math and risk. We never take a wager, hold a stake, or run a book — there is no deposit, no cash-out, and no bet to place here. Publishing odds and education is legal speech; taking bets is a licensed activity and is out of scope. Nothing here is betting, investment, legal, or financial advice.

Lottery odds — the real numbers

The published odds for the big draw games, and what a ticket is actually worth. Spoiler: over the long run, you lose.

You are far more likely to be struck by lightning (about 1 in a million in a given year) than to win a Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot (about 1 in 290 million). Lotteries return only roughly half of ticket revenue as prizes — an implied "house edge" near 50%, the worst on this whole site. A ticket is a small purchase of hope and entertainment; it is not an investment.

Major lottery games

Powerball (US, multi-state)

Pick 5 of 69 white balls + 1 of 26 Powerballs · ticket $2 · jackpot odds 1 in 292,201,338 · any prize ≈ 1 in 24.9

Prize tier	Odds
Jackpot (5 + Powerball)	1 in 292,201,338
$1,000,000 (match 5)	1 in 11,688,054
$50,000 (match 4 + PB)	1 in 913,129
$4 (match Powerball only)	1 in 38

Jackpot 1 in 292 million. Overall chance of ANY prize is about 1 in 24.9 — but most of those "wins" are the $4 return-of-ticket tier. Compute this game's EV →

Mega Millions (US, multi-state)

Pick 5 of 70 + 1 of 24 Mega Balls (redesigned Apr 8, 2025) · ticket $5 · jackpot odds 1 in 290,472,336 · any prize ≈ 1 in 23

Prize tier	Odds
Jackpot (5 + Mega Ball)	1 in 290,472,336
$1,000,000+ (match 5, ×built-in multiplier)	1 in 12,607,306

Since the April 2025 redesign, tickets are $5 with a built-in 2×–10× multiplier. Jackpot 1 in 290 million; overall about 1 in 23. Compute this game's EV →

EuroMillions (Europe)

Pick 5 of 50 + 2 of 12 Lucky Stars · ticket $2.5 · jackpot odds 1 in 139,838,160 · any prize ≈ 1 in 13

Prize tier	Odds
Jackpot (5 + 2 stars)	1 in 139,838,160

Better jackpot odds than the US giants, still ~1 in 140 million. Compute this game's EV →

Typical state "Pick 6" (6/49)

Pick 6 of 49 · ticket $1 · jackpot odds 1 in 13,983,816 · any prize ≈ 1 in 54

Prize tier	Odds
Jackpot (match 6)	1 in 13,983,816

Even a "small" 6/49 game is ~1 in 14 million for the top prize. Compute this game's EV →

Why lottery EV is (almost) always negative

Expected value of a ticket ≈ (jackpot × your probability of winning it) − ticket cost, summed across prize tiers. Because the odds are astronomical, the jackpot has to be enormous just to make the jackpot-tier EV break even — and even when a headline jackpot briefly exceeds that break-even point, taxes, annuity-vs-lump-sum discounting, and the risk of splitting the prize with other winners pull the real EV back below zero. Try any game in the lottery EV calculator.

The gambler's-fallacy trap, lottery edition

"Numbers that haven't come up are due" is false — every draw is independent, and quick-pick vs hand-picked makes no difference to your odds. Playing the same numbers every week does not improve them either.

Want to play for fun with zero money at risk?

If it's the thrill of the draw you enjoy, there's a free alternative that can't cost you anything: the KULA Arcade runs a provably-fair, non-cashable play-token lotto — the tickets are earned free, the draw is verifiable on-chain, and there is no payout. It's entertainment, not real money — there's no cash prize to chase and no money at stake. (Alpha / testnet.)